Category Archives: Weather risk

2015 El Niño – Impacts on Hurricane Activity and Climate Links to Reinsurance Loss Activity


2015 El Niño As predicted earlier this year, an El Niño event has been developing in the Equatorial Pacific. By most objective metrics, the event looks to be strong, with all defining atmospheric or oceanic variables showing the characteristic El … Continue reading →

Strongest El Niño in Decades

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Seasonal forecasting is a developing science. Skill is required for the scientific production of the forecast, but also in interpreting the information. However, if there is ever going to be a good time to check these long range forecasts, it … Continue reading →

Interactive Map of Hurricane Katrina

interactive hurricane katrina

Only ten years ago the city of New Orleans, “the Big Easy” was left battered and broken by ravaging winds and unyielding storm surge brought in by Hurricane Katrina. Even though it was a highly anticipated and well-forecast storm, Katrina … Continue reading →

30 Years Later: the Ontario Tornadoes of May 1985


On May 31, 1985, a deadly tornado outbreak struck the Northeastern United States and Canada, causing widespread property damage and loss of life. Continue reading →

Strong El Niño on the Way?

Probabilistic sea surface temperature forecast from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, made early May 2015, for the October-November-December 2015 average. Forecast is expressed as percent likelihood for each of three categories: Above normal, below normal, and near normal. Figure from CPC.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has predicted a “substantial” El Niño ahead, but about a year ago we also had predictions of a strong El Niño that never arrived. Will it be different this time? Continue reading →

Valuing Nature, Building Resilience

pine trees

It seems difficult to imagine a time when a clean environment was an afterthought and the well-being of the planet wasn’t linked to human well-being. The first Earth Day in 1970 was the beginning of raising environmental awareness across society. … Continue reading →

What Risks Will Emerge in 2015?

storm light house

Our list of emerging risks for 2015 covers the kind of perils that keep risk managers up at night: cyber risk, oil price volatility, the changing demands of today’s workforce, the over-confidence corporations have in the ability of their entity … Continue reading →

The 12 Risks of Christmas: How We Helped Santa This Year


Everyone knows Santa to be a great humanitarian and a “jolly old elf,” but he wants to be known for something else: business transparency. So, in our latest client meeting with St. Nick and his senior elf management, they asked … Continue reading →

Dangers & Opportunities Behind Latest IPCC Climate Change Report

IPCC: Change in Average Surface Temperatures, 1986-2005 to 2081-2100

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently published its Synthesis Report, a comprehensive summary of the IPCC’s three previous reports, which outlined the causes, the impacts, and the potential solutions to climate change. The report comes at … Continue reading →

Seasonal Climate Impact Prediction

hurricane doppler

We couldn’t possibly have anticipated Hurricane Sandy in advance of the season, or could we? Continue reading →