Blogger Archives: Rick Thomas

Rick Thomas

Rick Thomas is an Executive Director at Willis Re international with 20 years of experience in reinsurance underwriting cat model building, risk management and reinsurance buying. He also has detailed knowledge of the capital markets space. In Willis Re, Rick oversees both the model research and evaluation and the analytics and model development teams at Willis Re. He also leads the Willis Re International ILS practice group and is Head of Strategy for the Willis Research Network.

Dispelling the myth: Hurricane Andrew didn’t happen in an El Niño year

In the 20 or so years that span my reinsurance career the subject of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Atlantic hurricanes has often come up. And the topic invariable leads to the following comment “Yes, but didn’t … Continue reading →

Strong El Niño on the Way?

Probabilistic sea surface temperature forecast from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, made early May 2015, for the October-November-December 2015 average. Forecast is expressed as percent likelihood for each of three categories: Above normal, below normal, and near normal. Figure from CPC.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has predicted a “substantial” El Niño ahead, but about a year ago we also had predictions of a strong El Niño that never arrived. Will it be different this time? Continue reading →

Are You Safe From Tsunamis?


While the devastating Asian Tsunamis of 2004 and 2011 left us in no doubt of the threat in that region, people in Europe and the Caribbean generally consider themselves safe. However, according to a new Global Tsunami risk study published … Continue reading →